Survivor Redemption Island E3: Break Ups and Pick Up(Artist)s

“A wise man knows much but says little, a fool knows little but says much.” – Unknown (If you know the source of this quote, please let me know.)

“Man it feels so good to play with you amateurs. You give away so much. You don't even know when to keep your mouth shut. Thanks for the memories.” – Rob Mariano

Dear Stephanie,

We have to break up. I took my stuff. I’m so sorry.

I wanted to like you. I really did. Physically, you’re one of the most attractive women to ever play Survivor, and for awhile I thought you had quite a brain in the pretty little head. Allying with Russell was a bold move that had the potential to pay off majorly. Everyone knew he was deceitful and abrasive, so they avoided him. You, however, were trying to use his personality to your advantage. You tried to train your dragon like Parvati, and for awhile I believed in you. Rather, I wanted to believe in you. I created a false conception of you in my head based upon what I wanted you to be. The editing plays funny tricks on a guy like that.

Unfortunately this week I learned that you’re not Parvati. Oh sure, you were playing the basics of her strategy, but we all watched Heroes vs. Villains. Any pretty young girl can flutter her eyelashes and suck up to Russell. Flirtation is not what made Parvati’s game—not even in The Cook Islands. No, what made Parvati is her discretion. Her flirting got her into people’s inner circles. She only used the information she learned there when it benefitted her most.

You, on the other hand, lack discretion. Rather than wait to strike like a coiled snake, you climbed out of your cave to pounce on Frodo when Samwise was hiding behind the rock face. Maybe that reference is too nerdy for you. I don’t know, but if it is I’m sure you’ll tell me eventually, because apparently that’s what you do. You run your mouth My only question is: why? I can’t think of what purpose it serves.

Do you just think you’re that much smarter than everyone that you can berate them at Tribal Council and still win the game? Do you think you’re too smart to make decisions that are harmful to your life in the game? Because you’re not. You clearly demonstrated at this Tribal Council that you can’t see beyond the tip of your own nose. Yes, you understand how the game works. Yes, you understand how to think about strategy. Knowing those things doesn’t guarantee you won’t make mistakes though. Sometimes you just don’t know everything.

If you do make a mistake, the best thing to do is admit to yourself you made one and keep your mouth shut while figuring out how to sustain the least possible damage from it. Except you can’t do that. Instead, you dug your heels in and went on a tirade, berating anyone who dare challenge your understanding of the game. Well, I hate to break it to you sweetheart, but you’re a day late and a dollar short. Barring a twist or your finding a Hidden Immunity Idol, you’re about to follow your guy to Redemption Island where I’m sure you’ll find about as much success as he will—none.

Seriously, do you not realize that your little tirade may have been what caused Julie to vote against you? Maybe she was on the fence and then decided she didn’t want to risk her entire game by allying with Hope(less) and Associates. I really can’t say because this is clearly a case where editing hid Julie’s decision making process, but it is an important fact to note. You don’t run your mouth at Tribal Council because it shows your cards. I’m sure you’ve heard Lady Gaga. What happened to your Poker Face?

Like Gaga in her new video “Born this Way,” you dropped the plumage and discarded the mask, and I don’t like what I saw underneath. Be sure to tell your little mentor the following when you see him again: personality matters in this game, and yours, like his, is so profane that without intimidation and idols, you’re nothing more than an early boot with a hint of potential.

Don’t ever call me—even if you’re on a coconut phone made by Greg Buis,

Jayemel

Now that I’ve taken care of that bit of unpleasant business—and trust me, it’s always unpleasant—it’s time I turned my attention to more important development in this episode: the destruction of the Survivor legacy of Russell Hantz. There are two perspectives from which to approach this subject (which is a hell of a lot more touchy than it should be): editing and strategy.

For two seasons, the editors ran the Hantz Train. Because everything worked out in his favor (except the final votes), Russell was untouchable. He was, as he said, the LeBron James of Survivor—building him up as unstoppable increased ratings and buzz. In exchange, Russell was unleashed like a genetic hybrid in Gremlins 2. He could pretty much do whatever he wanted, but it was all only going to end in one way—destruction. Then came the clusterfuck now known as Nicaragua, and the future of the series was in doubt. The editors had to do something.

What they did was embarrass Russell in such a heavy handed manner it made Purple Kelly’s edit look benevolent in comparison. From moment one of Redemption Island, Russell was constantly being shown failing in contrast to Rob’s success (which they did again in this episode by showing Russell being stubborn and then Rob adapting by searching for the HII). Sure, it was possible to say they were trying to build Russell up for another underdog showing. Their edit of Russell was so harsh that it almost seemed like something else had to be going on. I can’t have been the only one actually believing that Julie was going to turn at Tribal Council.

Except this editing wasn’t about gameplay at all. Sure, Russell helped that along by playing the exact same game as he did the first two times. This wasn’t even about a good story. Sure, it helped that Ralph found the idol, but that didn’t amount to anything really. This was strictly personal. While watching the episode last night, my friend remarked that maybe the editors reworked the episodes once the spoiling story leaked. I doubt that’s true, but this edit was so harsh you have to wonder if maybe he had a point. They even made it a point to show him as being diseased AND mock his tattoo. “Keep Hope Alive” was not only scrawled across Russell’s shoulder by a kindergartener, but was the episode title. Too bad hope not only died, it was brutally murdered in a manner that would make even Dexter sick.

And the truth is, Russell may have taken his talents to Redemption Island, but he brought all of this on himself. His game hinged on two things: the unknown and the HII. Russell is basically a Survivor Pick Up Artist. He knows all the routines to perform, the sweet nothings to whispers, and the switches to flip. The problem is, being a PUA only works if the girl you’re attempting to pick up doesn’t know you’re a PUA. If she doesn’t know and you’re good, you can take on all the trappings of the nice guy, and she’ll buy it. Notice how Russell always did this, constantly saying how he was about the tribe, the numbers, and being loyal. He was only interested in those things in the same way a PUA is. In a true relationship, the partners are concerned about both involved people’s pleasure. They both derive pleasure from the fact that it is a mutual beneficial arrangement. Russell, on the other hand, like a PUA, is only interested in how a deal benefits him because he doesn’t care what happens to other people. It is a cold, callous, and calculating way of approaching the game.

Don’t understand what I mean? Consider past winners who have dominated strategically and who they got to the end with. Yul got to the end with Becky and Ozzy, two players close to his age, intelligence level, and athleticism. Earl went through most of the game with Yau-Man, a kindred spirit. Todd reached the end with Amanda and Courtney, all youthful and spirited players. When you establish a relationship with somebody, even in Survivor, you’re looking for things you value in them—and since you value those things, you’re going to want to see them be successful as well. And this works to players advantages, as who would you rather have next to you in the F2 or F3 and on the jury? Players who are more like you or less like you? (Hint: The players who are more like you are more likely to vote for you to win the game.)

Now consider who Russell took to the F3 both times, Natalie, Mick, Parvati, and Sandra. How did he end up with those people sitting next to him? Because he targets all the strong minded, confident individualists immediately—which is exactly what Russell is. Say what you will about Ralph this season, but the guy is secure with himself and has a game plan. It’s no wonder Russell targeted him so quickly. So if you get to the end with a bunch of followers and collectivists, who do you think they’re going to vote for? It’s sure as hell not going to be the guy who doesn’t give a shit about them and what they think. It’s going to be the girl that has empathy for them and loves them. Still don’t believe me? Look at who voted for Fabio in Nicaragua: Dan (UTR smart guy), Benry (UTR laid back guy), Purple Kelly (UTR laid back girl), Na’Onka (youthful and does what she feels), and Marty (smart and world wise guy). All of these players bonded with Fabio because they were like him in some way. This is the human side of the game.

The other thing a good PUA needs is a trick. Like a magician, he needs to distract you so you don’t think too much about him (because if you do you won’t figure out that he’s all image and no substance). Russell’s trick was the HII. By constantly finding it, he could be ignored and still have a chance in the game. People wouldn’t think much of him because he was in the minority. Yet, he would constantly come out on top. The best way to concretize this metaphor is refer to Barney Stinson in How I Met Your Mother. He literally does magic tricks to pick up girls. Don’t believe me that PUAs do that in real life? Girls, if a random guy ever jokes that he can read palms and grabs your hand, he was just looking for an excuse to touch you. Guys, if you see another guy do that, keep your eye on him.

Consider everything I just wrote and you’ll understand why Russell was dead in the water once Ralph found the HII. This season he was like the PUA in high school that everyone had exposed. It’s to the point that random people protect the new girl in town from him at parties, and they don’t even know if she’s a doucheasaur or not yet. Yes, that’s what happens when a PUA gets exposed. People would rather befriend possible doucheasaurs than him. And you know why? The PUA makes life harder for everyone else. Girls who get burnt find it hard to trust guys who actually mean things when they say them. Nice guys find it hard to be taken seriously because everyone starts to assume they’re a PUA.

The metaphor holds true in Survivor, and all you have to do to see how is go back and watch Nicaragua. All three guys in the F3 played the nice guy image intentionally, but were playing it up or faking it to some extent. Sash told everyone exactly what they wanted to hear (in true PUA style). Chase used his Southern charm, but defended his disingenuous gameplay with “it’s Survivor” (as PUAs say that this is how “the game” works), and Fabio pretended to be a hell of a lot dumber than he actually is (as PUAs often do). I’m not saying these guys are Russell. I’m saying his influence on their gameplay is undeniable.

Still want to deny it, huh? That’s fine. I don’t need you to agree with me. The editors knew all of this. That’s why they dismantled Russell’s legacy. I only need you to do one thing and you’ll figure it out eventually:

Think about it.

Survivor Redemption Island E2: On Messiahs

How is Rob still in this game? No, that's a serious question. How has everyone on his tribe not gotten together and realized how much of a threat he is--not a threat to win the game, but to their individual longevities. Rob made a subtle mistake this episode that any aware player should have picked up on (and possibly did). He demonstrated his unpredictability unless you know him like the back of your hand, and since none of the players are Amber, none of them do. What I mean is, by voting out Matt, Rob proved that it only takes a small action to get on his bad side and end up with you leaving at Tribal Council. That makes any player a possible target and proves that Rob doesn't actually have any loyalty.

Except here's where the mind games come in, and this is why Rob is still in the game. You have to be loyal to someone, and it's like Matt says, Rob is very good at giving people exactly what they need. It's actually the best possible strategy in Survivor. If you create mutually beneficial deals, then there is no reason for people to think you're lying or being disloyal--because you're telling the truth and being loyal. The problem is when you stop believing your deal is mutually beneficial and end it. This is what Rob did to Matt because he perceived him as playing for the end game on day five. His doing so should create doubt in the minds of the other players. They should ask themselves, "Do I know Rob well enough to understand how he perceives the way people are, the way they interact, and the way they play the game?"

Natalie, Grant, and Ashley presumably all think they're sitting pretty. They're in Rob's inner alliance of four. Natalie is in the best position. She is the nu-Amber. Grant is in the second best position. His physical strength means he can take more of a risk by aligning with Rob. If Ometepe vote out Grant, they're pretty much sunk. Finally, Ashley is in the roughest position, as she seems to be the most inconsequential to Rob (based on editing) . However, I have to wonder if she has a deal with Grant. That would make the foursome two couples (that's what she said), a ploy seen previously in the successful Koror alliance--Ian and Katie, Gregg and Jenn, and Tom. (Yes, I'm aware I just called Phillip Tom. The metaphor isn't perfect.)

At least we know why Russell is still in the game. Zapatera has yet to lose immunity, which actually creates a frightening possibility. If they don't ever lose immunity, could Russell sneak into the merge and then become someone's F3 pet dragon? But the likelihood of Koror immunity dominance (two Koror references in one column?) is small, and if we've seen Rob's game before, then we've definitely seen Russell's. He has his Natalie (Krista). He has his Parvati (Stephanie). He has his catchphrase ("You're either with me or you're against me"). The only problem is, he doesn't have his Hidden Immunity Idol. Ralph has it.

Russell, dude, you only don't need the numbers if you have the HII and no one knows who you are. Things are different this time, though. People do know who you are. You don't have the HII. Take a step back and reassess yourself. I'm not sure you're capable of doing that though. You just doesn't treat people like people. Nowhere was that more apparent than your confrontation with Ralph.

I understand if you come to a judgment on someone. Sticking by the judgment of your mind is important. However, if someone contradicts that judgment, you have to accept the new evidence and change your mind. Ralph presented Russell with new evidence but Russell just plowed through, refusing to acknowledge reality. Ralph, in all his so-called stupidity, knew Russell would do this and put on a show for Stephanie, Krista, David, and Mike. He was essentially saying, "Look how Russell dehumanizes me while I try to treat him with respect." I actually don't agree completely with Ralph's argument that since the tribe won the clue, it belongs to the tribe. Logically, that would mean that the tribe owns the HII too. The problem with that line of thinking is that only one player can use the HII, so it ultimately only belongs to the player who uses it. Ralph was aware of that, though. He was only making the argument to demonstrate how much of a jerk Russell is.

Russell's so much of a jerk, I hope he brings out the jerk in Ralph. This is what I would do if I were Ralph. At the first Tribal Council Zapatera went to, I would tell everyone including my allies to vote for me. Then I would vote for Russell. Then I would play the HII. Then the vote would be 8 for me 1 for Russell. Then the votes against me wouldn't count. Then the tribe wouldn't have spoken, I would have. I would have been the person to vote Russell Hantz out of Survivor--me, by myself.

Please, please, please, Ralph have done this. It would be a Top Ten All-Time Survivor moment.

As for the editing, it only makes me feel stronger about my Natalie prediction. This episode continued the perception-leadership theme and took it to another level: godhood. Once again the oracle Phil said the episode title, "You Own My Vote." In short, he pledged his loyalty to a god--a just and benevolent god.

That this episode was drawing a stark dichotomy between the two returning Rs is undeniable. Russell was clearly shown as a flawed and vengeful player. Rob was clearly shown as a clever and loyal player (loyal to those who are loyal to him). The only question is: how does this comparison translate to godhood? The key to the editing of this episode is twofold: the theme that was begun last episode and the character of Matt.

This episode was as much about who the players were going to follow as the first. Whereas the Ometepe tribe has learned its lesson (even Krista) and are following Rob, the Zapatera tribe is growing insolent and flaunting their independence in Russell's face. Only two have fallen in line, and those two fell into roles that were explicitly mentioned last episode--the Natalie and the Parvati. Likewise, the player that has most fallen in line with Rob was given a previous role too, as Amber was mentioned by Rob when talking about Natalie. Except, there's a major difference here that was made explicit. Amber was Rob's partner. Natalie is Rob's blind follower, to be tossed over his shoulder and carried to the end (and the million).

Matt, who once looked like a strong competitor, became little more than a one note character. He is the Christian, reminding us of god, saying that he believes god put him on the right tribe. However, this season is about redemption, and the only way to find redemption is through god. It's no silly coincidence or character quirk that caused the editors to include these small Matt moments. It also makes the obviously edited-in lightning around Russell's tirade against Ralph that much more symbolic, especially when contrasted with Rob's calm when conversing about voting with his alliance of four. To win this season is to be redeemed and the only way to be redeemed is to follow god--which is exactly what Natalie is doing.

For an even more off the wall and unlikely prediction, I see Matt as the player who returns to the game from Redemption Island. I then see him leading the jury charge (with Andrea) against Rob, a la the prayer warriors against Russell in Samoa. After all, in the big picture, Rob is nothing more than a false god, and big G God always gives them what's coming to them (not that I believe in him or anything, I'm just talking mythologies here).

F3 Prediction: Rob-Natalie-Phillip

(Note: The Ralph vs Russell plot could either play into this theory or contradict it. If Ralph proves that Russell is a false god, it could either mean that 1. the false god Rob will get his comeuppance in F3 or 2. following any false god is bad and anyone who does so will lose.)

On one final note, I'd like to take a moment to point out that what I said about Phillip held true. He only ran his mouth last Tribal Council because he was lied to and didn't like it. Yes, it proves him to be a bit of a loose cannon and odd, but he can be dealt with and used--and Rob is learning how to do that. I fully expect Phillip to be brought more and more into the fold as the season progresses.

As always, everything I've written is subject to any twists and turns the game brings. I am confident, however, in my overall thematic and strategic analysis and prediction. And if you still don't agree, I only ask that you do one thing:

Think about it.

Survivor Redemption Island E1: Phillip, Perception, and a Puppy

Once upon a time there was a guy who wrote a weekly column about his favorite television show. He reached marginal levels of notoriety, being published in FHM once and receiving over 100,000 views for his writeup on the series’ densest episode. Like all good things though, the show reached The End and the guy was left without anything to write about.

Except what if instead of that series ending and him never being allowed to write again, there was a magical thing called the interweb where anyone was allowed to say anything they wanted at any time (note: possible government approval pending)? What if one of his favorite shows of all times was still airing even though it began over a decade ago? Could he start to write about his first love?

The only problem is there’s no way to know if he’d be taken seriously once he returned to the column-writing game. He never seriously wrote about this show before. Sure, he was a decently known member of the online community. He was relatively notable on the biggest message board before it actually started to resemble its name sake. He played in (and did well in) the biggest online game ever, which was hosted and designed by then-future Guatemala mastermind Rafe and played in by still-famous Survivor writer Mario Lanza. He afterward became friends with and respected by Lanza. These facts, however, are in the past and none guarantee that if he were to return to the game that he would find redemption.

Ok, ok, I’ll stop writing in the third person. I only did it for dramatic effect. What kind of an impression of me did it leave you with? What’s your perception of my writing ability, Survivor knowledge, and personality? That’s the funny thing about life. It doesn’t always matter how nice, good, strong, or smart you are if other people perceive you as being otherwise—and the thing about other people’s perceptions is—right or wrong—you can’t control them and people rarely take the time to question the ones they hold. That idea and its consequences are the specific theme to Survivor Redemption Island Episode 1 “You're Looking at the New Leader of Your Tribe.”

The title of the episode points to perception in two ways. First it emphasizes the act of visual perception. By highlighting the word “looking”—as well as coupling it with the double-use of the second person pronoun “you”—attention is drawn to the truth that if a person is going to be a leader they must first be seen as a leader. This leads perfectly into the second interpretation of the title. It is a quote said by Phillip, the character who most played with the notion of perception in the episode and is this season’s oracle.

Phillip’s claim of being a former federal agent is brought into question not only by the other players in the game, but the editing of the show. By including a question mark in Phillip’s profession graphic the editors are coyly playing with the viewers in the same way they did with Kelly Purple’s edit in Nicaragua. We always believe the information the producers give us about the contestants, but what if they were lying to us as much as the contestants do? What if Phillip is lying about his profession? What if he’s not? These are questions you can only answer by the judgment of your own mind. That’s what all the players did. It’s why Phillip was lied to. It’s why he lied to himself when he said the title quote. It’s what caused the giant clusterfuck of awesomeness that was Tribal Council.

Like all good Survivor oracles though, Phillip wasn’t just talking about himself. He was narrating the fates of Boston Rob and Russell, the two returning players who face vastly divergent perceptions from the fans and new players. The fans have been arguing over their perceptions of the two so much during the offseason that I can’t even think of a fair sterile adjective to use to describe them. Nowhere is this more apparent than the receptions they received as they left their helicopter and picked buffs. Rob was greeted with cheers and warmth and Russell…well, let’s just say he wasn’t.

Camp life logically followed from that moment. We didn’t get to see what individual relationships Rob built and moves he tried to make. Instead, the editing made it seem like he simply was automatically the leader. Why? Because the perception is that he’s a good guy and a hero. It puts a finer point on Phillip’s quote. His perception was so flawed that he thought he somehow was going to get rid of Rob and make himself the leader. Sure, he was aligned with two other players who perceived that they were making the right moves, but they were completely off base. Sure, the episode’s (strategy) editing revolved around Kristina and the Hidden Immunity Idol, but her error was that the idol isn’t as powerful as she perceived it to be. Her and Fransequa’s overplaying even caused Rob—someone playing for the record fourth time—perception problems. He didn’t know which of the two to target. And us viewers, we still don’t really have a clue what’s going on in Ometepe at all.

Russell, in contrast to Rob, had to gather everyone and state his case as to why he should stay. He had to try to convince them he was going to help them to win. His speech didn’t work—or so the editing led us to believe. As he tried to “get his hooks” into Stephanie, members of his tribe watched on and noted that he was still as much trouble as he had been in his previous seasons. Does the whole tribe think that way about him? We don’t know, as the editing made it seem that way by only showing us the two players talking about Russell. Then there was Russell’s new ally herself whose first confessional was all about perception. Russell, she said, would look at her as cute and innocent but she could be as evil as him. That line of thought continued into her alliance formation with Russell, as the two of them discussed that Russell took Natalie and Parvati to the end—two Survivors who were once perceived as poor players by fellow participants and fans alike.

The easy reading of the editing would say that Stephanie is the winner. This is the same old Survivor we’ve seen 21 times before and, more specifically, twice over the last three season. The HII is found without clues. It is used in an abrasive power grab. Russell allies with a cute young girl and, ahem, takes advantage of her until, ultimately, the player gets played. Except this isn’t the same old Survivor. Rob’s lesson of how to beat the HII finally stuck and the majority used their most powerful weapon against it as they explicitly mocked Tyson’s mistake in Heroes vs Villains—loyalty to the plan. Russell’s tribe explicitly noted his lack of change in behavior. Most importantly, Tribal Council was an explosion of explicit strategy. Kristina, Francesqua, and Phillip aired the dirty laundry of their doomed alliance. Rob demanded the HII from Kristina and promised her safety (unintentionally echoing a deal Sash and Marty made privately). No, this isn’t your father’s Survivor. It belongs to a new generation now.

The scariest thing about my prediction for this season’s winner is it signals possible holistic editing of Survivor over two seasons. Let’s just say that an easy affectionate name for it is “The Puppy that Didn’t Bark.” Who was perceived as a target in this episode, yet we saw nothing of her? Who randomly was shown voting despite that invisibility? Who is the youngest player in the game ever and won’t be seen as a threat to win at all? The answer to these questions is Natalie.

Factor in Russell’s discussion with Stephanie about Natalie in Parvati and the fact that they showed a black spider before Ometepe voted and it all looks a bit more suspicious. Maybe this all looks Russell’s going to do his thing again, but Rob manages to do his thing again with Natalie as his new Amber (minus the wedding). Maybe Natalie reinvents strategy as we know it. I don’t know how it happens, I just believe it does. And if it does happen consider that Fabio basically had the “write me the check” quote a la Rich last season and Natalie would basically have the Tina episode one edit this season. Maybe, just maybe, the editors are really messing with us fans.

It should be an interesting season as Survivor, Rob, and Russell try to redeem and reinvent themselves by challenging the perceptions of them that people hold. Maybe you all will even let me redeem myself and allow my talent and knowledge to catapult me to notoriety as a Survivor writer. Regardless of what does happen, I’ll be here having a good time. I hope you join me—and if you do venture my way, I only ask that you do one thing about all the ideas I present to you:

Think about it.

(And I promise I’ll discuss strategy more in the future. Episode one is always a unique discussion in a season of Survivor. Actually, episode/chapter/scene/stanza one is always a unique discussion in anything.)